And, even though this is an forecast:
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Contrary to the opinions of gamers believing that Blu-ray has ruined the PlayStation 3, noted Webush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter believes that the cutting edge media format will be the key to Sony's success at the end of the current console war.
According to a new 207-page report from Wedbush Morgan Securities, industry analyst Michael Pachter believes that the Sony PS3 may win the next-gen console war because of Blu-ray, not in spite of it. His analysis, as transcribed by GameDaily Biz, states that video game content on all three consoles will more or less cancel each other out, but the key factor will, in fact, be the movie industry.
"Notwithstanding the efforts of the three console manufacturers to deliver compelling exclusive content, we expect the ultimate outcome of the console wars to be decided by the motion picture studios," Pachter writes. "Should the studios embrace Sony's Blu-ray standard for high definition DVDs, we think Sony will gain an insurmountable advantage over Microsoft; should the studios embrace Sony rival Toshiba's HD-DVD format, we think that Microsoft can maintain its first mover advantage and will dominate software sales for years to come."
Seeing as how the PS3 and Xbox 360 are the only two next-gen consoles with a heavy stake in the movie industry, Pachter believes that Nintendo will be out of the running as a long-term industry leader, although the Wii will no doubt have the largest collection of exclusive games. But between the Xbox 360 and PS3, Pachter predicts that Blu-ray will eventually beat out HD-DVD to win the hi-def format war, which means that the console war may play out like this:
"[W]e expect Microsoft's Xbox 360 to enjoy a first mover advantage for the next two years, capturing approximately 44% of U.S. and European combined next generation hardware unit sales by the end of 2007," he reports. "We forecast the PS3 and Nintendo's Wii to capture approximately 21% and 35%, respectively, of the next generation hardware market in this same period. We forecast the Wii to take the lead in 2008, with 39% market share, and expect the race to even out in 2009, with all three console makers capturing between 30 -- 37% of the overall market.
But in the end, he believes that Sony will come out on top, although he also clearly states that the victory will only be a marginal one.
"Ultimately, we see Sony 'winning' the console war with 36% of the market, with Nintendo 'capturing' second place at 34% and Microsoft finishing third at 30%," he concludes. "We believe that this is essentially a dead heat, and each manufacturer will have sufficient market share to generate significant profits. These estimates do not include market shares in Japan, which we expect to be dominated by Nintendo (51% through 2011) and Sony (44%)."
Despite this all-out battle, Pachter predicts good tidings for the industry as a whole, as he forecasts a compounded growth rate of 16.1% from 2007 to 2009. In fact, U.S. publishers stand to make a total of $17.7 billion within this calendar year alone.